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Tom Glocer's Blog

  • Summer Holidays

    I'm now on vacation, which means this blog is too. Although I enjoy writing, I turn off all electronics for 10 - 14 days a year. As this blog should attest, I'm no Luddite, but the best way I can relax and also give my family my full attention is not to be reaching for my array of vibrating devices every 30 seconds. Those who really need to reach me can. Most discover that they can get on just fine without me. As a wise Frenchman once said, "the cemeteries are full of men who once thought themselves indispensable." I hope you all enjoy a good break.
  • Reflections on Sun Valley 2010

    I have been reflecting for a couple of weeks on the significance of some of the young companies that presented at this year's Sun Valley Conference, always hosted so professionally and graciously by Allen & Co.  Thingd presented its vision of the internet of things, with crowd-sourced taxonomies of the attributes of these items.  Square demonstrated how to extend mobile credit card payments to smaller transactions. Pandora showed its user-programmed internet radio service and the database of musical attributes that drives it.

     

    More than ever, these presentations got me thinking that all the pieces of internet infrastructure are falling into place to enable some truly fantastic services in the years to come.  It is often said in tech circles that we overestimate what technology can do in the next year or two and grossly underestimate what can be achieved in the next 10 years.  This results from the uniquely iterative nature of technology to build upon the foundations laid by the last innovation.  Each generation stands on the shoulders of those who preceded it, or more accurately, each new services-oriented architecture subscribes to and builds upon a set of services introduced by the prior generation.  Thus, the pace of science progresses not linearly, but exponentially, as Ray Kurzweil has observed.

     

    So what does this really mean in practice? For example, the mobile e-payment system built by Square can rely on the location-specific service available for the iPhone or Android platforms to identify where a given transaction is taking place, without having to spend the time or money to write that code itself.  Similarly, if you want to add mapping capability to your new service, you would be well-advised not to go out and try to re-map the world from scratch; instead you would likely incorporate Google Maps or another service available to you through a programmatic interface.  Almost none of these new companies build stand-alone datacenters populated with separate servers for each application; they simply subscribe to the Amazon, Google or other cloud for commodity computing services.  Cloud providers in turn rely on many of the technologies that preceded them, virtualization software, in particular.

     

    This phenomenon of building upon the efforts of our forbearers is not unique to computing.  Biochemists now routinely use gene sequencing and monoclonal antibody technologies pioneered by others, and artists regularly "sample" and incorporate the works of their masters.  However, like the early and powerful computer language LISP, in which a given line of code could be both instruction and operand, digital technology permits much faster and richer iteration.  So the next time you think that the digital generation has ruined our lives by speeding everything up, just think of the amazing advances that you are likely to live to see.  We are blessed to stand on the shoulders of giants.

     

     

  • Workflow By Any Other Name

    "Workflow" is defined by Wikipedia (the term is shunned by most established (read print) dictionaries) as "a sequence of connected steps ... a sequence of operations, declared as work of a person [or] a group of persons."

     

    I have always found the term to be a sadly overused example of marketing doublespeak  -- what's wrong with just saying "the pattern or method of work" in plain English.  However, it does capture one of the few ways in which companies such as Thomson Reuters have been able to make money on and with the internet. 

     

    Substantially all of our products combine information and software to support professionals in doing their jobs.  This is as true of WestlawNext for the practicing attorney as it is for Thomson Reuters Eikon for the swaps trader.  It is this tight integration of content and instructions which we have labelled "intelligent information."

     

    Another company, this time from the consumer world, which is routinely (and legitimately) praised for its tight integration of media and software is Apple.  In Apple's case it goes further to include the tight-coupling of elegant hardware as well, but at base, what they do supremely well is meet the media consumer's needs or "workflow" or perhaps "playflow."  Because Apple makes it so easy for me to synch my iTunes library with my iPad and iPhone (4.0, of course), I don't bother integrating diverse content myself onto a Zune (if you can still find one) or other generic MP3 player.

     

    Similarly, it has always struck me as ironic that the same kid who would not dream of paying for a full 4'33" song through iTunes, will happily pay $1.99 for a 10 second ring tone drawn from the same track.  Is the reason not again "workflow" or convenience?  Unlike me, this user is happy to go to the trouble of downloading "free" music (and likely violating copyright in the process), but when it comes to then editing the track down to the key ringtone-perfect refrain and synching it to his phone, he is happy to pay for the convenience.

     

    So what we are left with in the end is that user convenience drives a significant portion of consumer and professional consumption of content.  And, come to think of it, what's so terrible about making money giving customers what they actually want?

  • Friends Reunited

    Here I am at 33,000 feet again (legally, thanks to Cathay Pacific), listening to one of the truly great jazz compositions – Sketches of Spain by Miles Davis.  Perhaps it was my recent culturally-rich trip to Spain or my brain-jangling, Lost in Translation jet lag coming back from Asia, that made these mellifluous notes sound so sweet and pure to my ears, but I think the root cause lies elsewhere.  Re-discovering this modern masterpiece was like being re-united with an old friend.  Someone you know well and with whom you can celebrate a shared past, while still offering fresh perspectives to the careful companion.

     

    While on that trip to Spain last month, I attended a session of the executive education course Thomson Reuters offers in conjunction with IE and Tuck business schools.  It is always a treat to attend these courses which combine 40 or so of our most talented executives along with a world-class faculty.  On the day I attended, a wise and mischievous Welsh professor, with musical tastes as deep and soulful as an abandoned local mine, referred the class to the Miles Davis Sketches album.

     

    I found myself nodding judiciously at this musical reference (CEOs make a point of only nodding judiciously), but later when I tried to listen to the tracks from my iTunes library, I realized, rather guiltily, that this masterpiece had not made the transition from vinyl to CD and from CD to MP3.  Many were the LPs in my collection which died an appropriate death along this journey.  I don’t shed a tear that The Monkeys, The Commodores or Plastic Bertrand fell prey to musical euthanasia, but every so often a great work also failed to cross the digital abyss.

     

    Such was the fate in my collection of Sketches from Spain, which I quickly rectified upon my return from Spain.  Listening to it again on the long way back from Asia was  like being reunited with an old friend.  With  fellow passengers and crew as witnesses, I vowed not to let the sublime Concierto de Arunjuez and other tracks miss the next journey from MP3 to whatever lies beyond.

     

  • Blog Time

    I often get asked when do I find the time to blog.  The answer rather self-evidently is right now.  I, with the not inconsiderable assistance of a 747 and trained crew, am flying at 31,000 feet en route to Singapore. Whichever direction one leaves from New York, it is a long flight. 

    So the question might more provokingly be asked, why don't I write War and Peace or A Rembrance of Things Past rather than a measly couple of paragraphs. Well, again the answer is obvious - because I can't.

    I have previously written on why I started and continue this blog (see  Recursive Loops: A Blog on Blogging); today I simply tackle the "how." I write mostly on airplanes and occasionally on the ground late at night.  I typically write the prospective piece as an email to myself, these days on my iPad. This provides me a ready spell-checker and an easy means to later upload to the server that hosts this blog. I am not a brilliant time manager, but I get a lot done because I am not lazy and at work I have an outstanding team. 

    When I started blogging over five years ago, one of my staff suggested that it could be ghost-written and then run through Legal, Marketing, Communications, etc.  With the exception of good ideas which I borrow freely, the text is unfortunately all mine.  This certainly means that it will never rival  Tolstoy or Proust, but at least it is faithful to my voice.  

  • Dad, Get Your Own Life; Don't Write About Mine

    My two kids don't like it much when their parents talk about them. Most kids don't, and I was no different. In my fuzzy, pre-lawyer mind I claimed a non-existent copyright in the details of my early life.  So how much worse it must be for Mariana (age 12) and Walter (10) that I occasionally write about them here.

    While my kids are never far from my mind, I have been spending extra time with them lately as the school year wound down, sports days and school assemblies started to crowd my diary and the approaching summer drew us all outdoors. For a brother and sister they get on very well, with some passions they share, World Cup Soccer, The New York Mets and cool technology (I wonder where they get these from?) and other interests that diverge.

    Where Walter can spend hours playing MLB Baseball on the Wii, Mariana prefers building artificial environments in The Sims.  Mariana likes to watch movies and tv re-runs on Hulu, while also devouring thousand-page novels, whereas Walter would happily spend his entire day playing catch or watching repeats of last season's NBA slam dunk contest.

    The end of the school year is a special time for kids.  The long hot summer beckons with what appears in June to be an infinite expanse of days sans homework. There are some melancholy moments -- saying goodbye to a favored teacher or not getting the right older kids to sign your yearbook -- but mostly it is a time to celebrate.

    From a parent's perspective, I would prefer the kids to stay in school through June as they did in London, but have more holidays during the year.  However, I suspect it suits the teachers, not to mention the owners of summer camps, to have three free months each summer -- much like it suited the pilots in the early days of British Airways (then BOAC) to schedule flights when convenient for them rather than their customers.

    Speaking of flying, our family is fortunate to be able to visit grandparents in Finland and godparents and friends in France and England, so I get to spend a lot of time in the air with my kids.  In our slightly twisted modern life, this also passes for "quality time" - that elusive, fully interacting mode that the television psychologists tell us we should aspire to.  For the Glocers it gives us the chance to watch a movie together, and laugh when we can't get four video streams to start at the same time, and share a meal at which we don't have to play the Russian roulette equivalent  of "who is going to get up and fetch the Tabasco."

    I have a great job which I enjoy, but which consumes a huge amount of what would otherwise be family time; however, there  is never any doubt who or what comes first.  As someone I admire often observes, work is what we do, not who we are.

  • In Defense of Lawyers

    For those of you who thought that my recent post on Goldman Sachs was controversial, you will no doubt decide that I have certifiably lost my mind to come to the defense of lawyers. Of all the undeserving species that roam the earth, none is as commonly reviled as Lawyer Americanus.  

     

    As many of you know, I started professional life (some would argue, life itself) as a lawyer and I confess to having liked the education, the practice and many of my colleagues.  But yet the profession is often viewed as loathsome. Why is this, I have often asked myself?

     

    I think the following often-heard refrain reveals a good part of the answer:  "My lawyer is great, but [my wife's/the other side's] attorney is impossible."   Well, of course, she is; she is supposed to be.  We like our representative to raise the tough issues we would prefer to duck, but we seldom complain that our counsellor is overly focused on protecting us from a variety of things that can and do go wrong. 

     

     

    So why all the lawyer jokes?  I think it is because we like to believe that we live in a better and safer world than is, in fact, the case. In business we like to pretend that every issue can be "win-win" and we utter platitudes like "one plus one equals three in this merger." How often have I heard the complaint from some high-minded CEO: "my counterpart and I had it all worked-out and then the damn lawyers got involved and screwed it up."  Typically a quick review of the facts would reveal that the two CEOs had, in fact, reached some very squishy, 60,000 ft understanding, and then their respective legal teams (who have no doubt been up two nights in a row working on the details) forced them to answer questions such as what happens to the agreed price of the all-stock deal if the share price of one of the parties suddenly plummets, or who should bear the risk and costs if the antitrust authorities object to the combination.    

     

    Lawyers are a pain in the ass because life can be a pain in the ass.

     

     

    Most of the lawyers I know, and I readily admit they include more big firm attorneys, judges, general counsels and law professors, are kind, decent people who were often attracted to the law in the first place by an enhanced sense of fairness or justice, and who will listen and respond to rational argument. There are also a certain number of moral  retrobates who prey on the weak and the innocent and produce nothing of socially-redeeming value while billing at a high hourly rate, but, in my experience, they are generally the exception. 

     

    I have tended to keep these thoughts to myself over a career now split about equally between time working as a lawyer and time working as a manager.  However, for the last two years I have had the good fortune to be reunited with the law, through the Legal business of Thomson Reuters.  We employ so many attorneys to produce and support our services for legal professionals, that we would count among the 20 largest law firms in the US.  This has given me not just the excuse, but the obligation, to get back in touch with the people and substance of my professional roots, and this has been both rewarding and enjoyable.   

     

    So the next time you feel ready to garrotte "the other guy's" lawyer, just ask yourself the question whether it is not her principal you should strangle instead, and reflect on whether this highly ritualized form of battle is not preferable to the law of the jungle
  • Goldman and the Rush to Judgment

    I seldom comment on contentious current events, let alone those that affect clients of Thomson Reuters.  However, the intense global criticism of Goldman, Sachs prompts me to join the debate.  No sooner had the SEC surprised the firm and the market with its charges of fraud relating to the structuring and marketing of a 2007 synthetic collateral debt obligation (CDO) offering, than commentators up to and including British Prime Minister Gordon Brown fell all over themselves to convict Goldman as being “morally bankrupt.”  It just seems too easy and too politically expedient to jump on this bandwagon.

     

    Perhaps the firm will eventually be found liable of these charges, although I rather doubt it.  But what happened to our prized principles of maintaining innocence prior to being proven guilty?  What is it about our media-driven society that prompts normally thoughtful observers to rush to judgment --even those who couch their indictments in the form of “well, if they did do what the SEC accuses them of, they are [morally reprehensible]?"

     

    Enough already.  Goldman has 36,000 employees, among them no doubt a couple of bad apples.  Among them are also many upstanding, ethically decent mothers and fathers who deserve better than to be branded as the source of financial contagion.  I know many of them personally – they are certainly not the poor, the homeless or the oppressed, but they deserve to be judged on their merits, not condemned in a hasty trial in the court of public opinion.  Even the SEC was split 3-2 along partisan lines, which is relatively unusual in such cases.

     

    Has it ever dawned on those quick to judgment that we may not yet know all the facts?   Goldman is accused of failing to disclose to the purchasers of the CDOs that Paulson & Co. intended to short these securities and had some involvement (yet not exclusive) in the selection of the underlying mortgages to which these securities related.  I imagine that the actual legal proceedings will turn on the precise nature of the obligation that an offeror may have to the sophisticated purchasers of such securities and the highly fact-specific nature of what “he said, she said” – as interpreted after the fact from the ever-present email trail.

     

    These proceedings are best left to the securities and regulatory lawyers, but let’s try to relate Goldman’s alleged conduct to some less exotic commercial dealings.  Let’s imagine instead that you are a sophisticated real estate investor looking to buy a house which is located in an area that has been hit by flooding two times in the last 15 years.  The selling family is represented by a prestigious real estate agent, “Goldman Reality,” and imagine further that the sellers have confided in Goldman that they believe another flood may soon occur and that in addition to selling their house, the sellers will be placing legal bets in Las Vegas which will pay them millions if another flood occurs within a year of selling their house to you.

     

    Of course, the terrible flood occurs.  Do you bring fraud charges against the real estate agent or do you rely on federal flood insurance to bail you out (as of course the sophisticated bank purchasers did in the actual Goldman case)?  Do you complain more bitterly if the selling family is subsequently lauded as a great real estate speculator or flood predictor? Let’s all remember that when the actual CDO offering was made in 2007, John Paulson was not recognized to be the great investor he is seen as today. 

     

    Goldman does not need me to defend them – they have far better lawyers on retainer.  But when most of the world is ready to convict and condemn before trial, my sense of fairness suggests we should suspend judgment until the full story emerges. 

  • iPad and Beyond

    The Apple iPad launched this past weekend amid mass, but not untoward, hype and hysteria.  I have been playing with Steve’s gift to the media and am seriously impressed – not just with the elegant machine I am holding in my hands, but with the future it points towards.

     

    I hope that readers of this blog, who must start-out with a certain interest in all things Thomson Reuters, will download and try our new News Pro application for the iPad.  It is being prominently featured in the iPad applications section of  iTunes.

     

    But that is not why I am posting this item.  For some years now I have been arguing in this blog and elsewhere that the death of newspapers (or more accurately, some newspapers) does not portend the death of journalism.  I have maintained that many media executives have been wearing a type of blinders that make them incapable of seeing beyond the current version of “paper”  as the output device or medium for their efforts.

     

    What the iPad represents for me is a trail of breadcrumbs along a path to the future of media.  Sure, even the Day 1 version out of the box is cool, functional and performant.  But what is really exciting to me is the direction that Apple is pointing.  What will the son or grandson of iPad be like?  Do you remember your original white iPod with its control wheel?  I bet it is sitting at the bottom of a drawer waiting to join your Sony Walkman and TRS-80 (for you old-timers) in your personal tech museum. 

     

    I believe we are going to see a recovery and rebirth of “newspapers” and “magazines” on the iPad, and even more so on future devices.  Now that a new generation of digital natives are moving into positions of authority at many publications, they are ready to exploit the full range of expression that the new medium permits.  So, for example, if Vogue magazine has a story and photo layout of the latest Prada collection from Milan, why not a video of the catwalk – right in the “magazine” you read and not on some special PC-accessible web site. Ditto, Sports Illustrated, L’Equipe  or Tuttosport.

     

    Where do we go from here?  Well, first, I think we should play and enjoy the current iPad -- or even better, the 3G/wifi version coming soon.  Later versions will undoubtedly be lighter, brighter for use in sunny locations, and have even longer-lived batteries.  I still think that we eventually will come to use a very  lightweight and flexible plastic sheet, controlled by touch and by a next generation iPhone- like device, as our high quality “paper.”  However, in the meantime just enjoy the voyage – it’s going to be a fun ride.

  • Grace Notes

    My last post about the 25 books that influenced me the most (see How to Get into my Good Books), has led, predictably, to requests that I compile a similar list for musical influences.  These requests also reveal an interesting correlation between the age of the writer and the recording format of choice.  Troglodytes of my generation mostly sought my favorite “records” or “albums;" while younger writers sought the corresponding “songs” or “tracks.” 

     

    I am going to go with albums and adopt the rules that (i) no more than one album per artist/group and (ii) no greatest hits albums.  As with my list of books, this musical compilation is not an attempt to list the “best” 25 albums of all time, nor even my current or all-time favorites; but rather, the music that has had the most important influence in my life, for a variety of ultimately idiosyncratic reasons.

     

    With those ground rules in mind:

     

    Bach, Goldberg Variations (Gould)

    Beethoven, 9 Symphonies (von Karajan)

    Berlioz, Symphonie Fantastique (Dutoit)

    The Clash, London Calling

    Coldplay, X&Y

    Miles Davis, Kind of Blue

    Bob Dylan, Highway 61 Revisited

    Genesis, The Lamb Lies Down on Broadway

    Getz/Gilberto, Live at Carnegie Hall

    Grateful Dead, Europe '72

    Jimi Hendrix, Are you Experienced

    Keith Jarrett, The Koln Concert

    Kool and the Gang, Wild and Peaceful

    Led Zeppelin, Led Zeppelin II

    Georges Moustaki, Moustaki

    Nirvana, Nevermind

    Pink Floyd, Dark Side of the Moon

    R.E.M., Automatic for the People

    Bruce Springstein, Greetings from Asbury Park

    Talking Heads, Remain in Light

    U2, The Joshua Tree

    Bob Weir, Ace

    George Winston, December

    Neil Young, After the Gold Rush

    Yes, Close to the Edge

  • How to Get Into My Good Books

    Despite my interest, professional and personal, in all things digital, I get asked now and then to cite the books that have most influenced me.  The answer to this question is highly personal.  It does not generate a list of the “best” books of all time, the pillars of the “Western Canon” or the “Booker of Bookers.”   In fact, it may not even represent the “best” books I have read, but rather the books which changed me the most or made me more “me” – whatever that means in a deterministic universe. 

     It is in this spirit that I offer an idiosyncratic list of the most important books to me:

     

    Balzac, Pere Goriot

    Calabresi, Tragic Choices

    Camus, The Plague

    Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma

    Dostoevsky, Crime and Punishment

    Helpern, A Soldier of the Great War

    Hofstader, Godel, Escher, Bach

    Jenkins, Churchill

    Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near

    Kennan, Sketches from a Life

    Kundera, The Unbearable Lightness of Being

    Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

    Lampedusa, The Leopard

    Lightman, Einstein’s Dreams

    Mafouz, The Cairo Trilogy

    Mann, Buddenbrooks

    Marquez, 100 Years of Solitude

    Milosz, Selected Poems

    Plato, The Republic

    Rawls, A Theory of Justice

    Roth, The Human Stain

    Rushdie, Midnight’s Children

    Sagan, Avec Mon Meilleur Souvenir

    Saramago, Blindness

    Whitman, Leaves of Grass

     

    I have stopped at 25, but I could easily go on.  I would never recommend that anyone actually read all of these books, which I have read over many years. They are important to me because of a unique interaction between an accomplished author writing something for all time, and the particular place, both geographic and personal, where I was when I read it.  It has always seemed to me that what makes a book or author truly great is not that she tells me something new that I did not know before, but rather that she tells me something I already knew deep inside myself but which I could never express as well.

     

     

     

     

     

  • Rangers 3, Devils 1, Glocer 0

    The girls in the family and I took Walter and ten of his classmates to the Rangers game as his 10th birthday party.  No greater test of parental love has every been devised than stopping 10 soda-fueled boys from inflicting permanent inner ear damage on one another -- not to mention 18,200 innocent hockey fans at the Garden.    It is truly a miracle of Darwinian selection that so many of these boys outlive their every attempt to blind one another with a flicked bottle cap, cross-check one another over the guard rail or generally attempt to maim, torture or trip one another. I have new found respect for the incredible policing, let alone teaching, prowess of the teachers at Walter’s fine boys’ school.

     

    In the event, we were all rewarded with an exciting Ranger win over the Devils.  Henrik Lundqvist was particularly sharp in goal in the 3-1 game.  What I had forgotten in years of only watching hockey at home was (i) how much better it is to watch in person and (ii) how much of a throwback it is to witness the spectacle of hockey fights in our era of organized and highly regulated violence in sport.  I will leave it to the sociologists to explain why we do not permit tall black men to fight in the NBA but seemingly encourage stocky white men to do so in the NHL.  I just don’t feel it adds to the game in any sport, while I nonetheless recognize the passion with which the game is played.

     

    This was very much my week for hockey as earlier in the week, I hosted a party at the Thomson Reuters sponsored ice rink at Canary Wharf in London.  What I had not counted on was that my hosting duties included actually playing 3-on-3 hockey with clients and colleagues.  However, one of the fringe benefits of being the ceo is that I was paired with NHL Hall of Famer, Luc Robitaille as one of my two teammates.  Never in his 19 record-setting seasons did the former LA Kings star ever work harder to score a measly assist.  Despite Luc’s every effort to place the puck on my stick in front of the goal, I failed to score a single goal in my first appearance on ice in 30 years.  Fortunately, however, across the many games, others including Luc and the Canadian High Commissioner did score, resulting in $28,000 going to Haiti earthquake relief at $500 per goal.

     

  • Davos 2010

    The theme for this year’s edition of the World Economic Forum in Davos was “Rethink, Redesign and Rebuild.”   While the actual rebuilding must await the delegates return to their home countries and the transition from talk to action, nonetheless the 2010 Forum lived up to its mission. 

     

    This was the 40th anniversary edition of Davos and the global financial meltdown and resulting Great Recession overshadowed every other topic.  For those who have never been comfortable with the harsh freedoms of the market economy, the ravages of the deep recession provided a renewed opportunity to argue for their favorite blend of Marxism, socialism, controlled-economy or not-for-profit entrepreneurship.  While I have always maintained that a prudent regulatory framework is not inconsistent with a free market economy (see, e.g., Towards a New Capitalism, Nov. 2008; London Chamber of Commerce, Feb. 2007, infra.), I found myself in an odd place on several panels defending the core principles of the free market.  Despite its imperfections (e.g., a tendency to monopolies if left unchecked) and its resulting need for some government regulation, no other system allocates capital and labor as efficiently, thereby increasing the size of the pie for all.

     

    On a similar note, while there was no shortage of poor banker conduct over the last several years to criticize, I found myself reminding serious global leaders that it might be difficult to deliver the jobs and entrepreneurship they professed to value without the credit intermediation function of banks.  Bankers have few friends these days, and at times the entitlement culture of some of these Masters of the Universe does test one’s devotion to sensible policy outcomes; however, I don’t want to live in a country where the modern banking system is replaced by some government or shadow credit provision mechanism.

     

    President Sarkozy delivered a mellifluous address in French, but after assuring the audience that he had not come to Davos to lecture us, he proceeded to do just that.  After ranging through mark-to-market accounting, compensation abuses and the achievements of his government, Sarko announced the not unambitious goal of saving capitalism from itself.

     

    This year’s Davos was, however, decidedly less anti-American than in the past.  Whether this was thanks to the more multilateral approach of the Obama administration or the recognition in Europe that all is not well in the Old World with the PIGS (Portugal Italy, Greece and Spain) threatening the economic cohesion of the Union.  

     

    As always, there was plenty to be depressed about – the global economy, the militant theocracy in Iran, the stalled Mid-East peace process, the likelihood of peace ever being achieved  in Afghanistan, the lack of progress on climate change, the overheated Congress Center, etc.  However, come Sunday and the end of the conference, no amount of talk or hot air could overshadow the timeless beauty of sun shining on two feet of fresh powder on the long, tree-lined descent to Klosters.  For the ACL not torn I have much to be thankful for.

     

     

     

  • Politics by Sound Bite

    Now that Congress is well on its way to passing healthcare (or more accurately, health insurance) reform, it is time for me to return to the topic of financial regulation.  My worry is that with the current predilection of our legislators for policy by sound bite, we are unlikely to emerge with thoughtful reform.

     

    In my earlier post, Towards a New Capitalism (November 2008), I argued that free market capitalism and sound government regulation were not inconsistent goals, and that after attending to the primary task of returning the underlying economy to job-creating growth, the new administration should undertake a thorough overhaul of financial regulation.  Unfortunately, there is so much misinformation and superficial thinking coming out of Washington that I fear we will get lots of regulation but little reform. Let me cite some examples.

     

    Last year Senator Grassley introduced an amendment to the TARP legislation that would have barred financial institutions that received TARP funds (whether they asked for those funds or were just ordered to take them) from hiring foreign workers on H-1B visas.  This was part of a broader political backlash against immigrants “taking American jobs.”  Not only do I find this trend to be dumb public policy but downright un-American.  

     

    First, from a policy prospective, no matter how sympathetic one is about the unemployed 50 year-old autoworker in Detroit, he is very unlikely to return to work in place of the 23 year-old Indian math wiz at Goldman, Sachs.  I believe we should do everything possible to retrain the unemployed, provide a decent social safety net (including health insurance) and create real jobs in the economy, but ordering banks not to hire the best talent available is not the way to rebuild America.  Unfortunately, however, it makes for good politics and great media sound bites: “I am not going to sit idly by and let taxpayer-supplied bank bailout funds go to replace American workers with foreign temps.”   In fact, the immigration of talented workers to the US has been a great engine of GDP growth, and compared to European nations with falling populations, the US economy can be expected to continue to benefit from immigration over the coming years.

     

    Second, I think bashing immigrants is counter to the great promise of America.  Anyone for “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free”?  I recognize that the US has not always been a welcoming shore for immigrants throughout our history, but this is our national myth, what is “written on the box,” what we aspire to.  It is a worrying sign that we may have turned to keeping others from sharing the pie, rather than working together to increase the size of the pie.  A land of “manifest destiny” does not look inwards.

     

    Another worrying example is the diversionary focus in Washington on banker pay.  I do not mean to suggest that there have not been some egregious examples of mis-aligned incentives.  However, for me the key issue was a mispricing and unfair allocation of risk.  Quite simply, the system permitted the gains to be privatized and the costs to be socialized.  Prior to the financial crisis, many institutions were, effectively, overstating the earnings out of which they were paying large bonuses by not sufficiently reflecting the true cost of the risks they were incurring.  This was neither illegal nor in violation of applicable accounting standards, but led just as surely to outsize profits as if an industrial company under-accrued for future taxes liabilities

     

    Post crisis, there is another pay controversy.  Many banks made large profits in 2009 on the back of unprecedented government intervention during the crisis and a steep yield curve.  Politicians and pundits, pointing to an angry public, are seeking to ban or tax the potentially large bonuses that may be payable.  The UK attempt to tax banks into limiting bonus payments seems to be backfiring per the usual law of unintended consequences, and now shareholders are beginning to complain that they will be saddled with lower returns.  Again, there is a simpler way.  Governments have effectively underpriced the value of their 2008 market interventions and thus bank profits are recovering pre-maturely.  It is not unusual for bank regulators to encourage banks to recapitalize over time via extraordinary profits (often abetted by inflation), but absent further regulation, it should not then be surprising that this will lead to large bonus gains.  

     

    The final irony for me is the political pressure that has been applied upon banks around the world to change the form as well as the quantum of compensation.  It is no bad thing to require a large proportion of comp to be paid in the form of equity that must be held for three to five years at a minimum.  Most public companies already work that way.  However, it is naïve to think that pay plan design alone will solve all the issues.  We should not forget that the “poster child” for banker greed, Dick Fuld already complied with exactly what the reformers would like to mandate.  He took most of his pay in Lehman stock, and went down with a $1 billion loss.  If this is not skin in the game, then I don’t know what is.

     

    Prudent regulation of financial institutions is necessary because of the important credit intermediation role they play in the modern market economy.  But no system of regulation or incentive compensation is self-effectuating.  The rules should establish a principled framework in which managers and directors are given the responsibility to act in the best interests of their institutions and held accountable when they fail to live up to those standards.  Rather than setting pay limits, regulators should focus on fair, accurate and transparent accounting standards.  If the true long-term costs of various activities were accurately reflected in a bank’s accounts and compensation system, there would be no need for “Pay Czars” or windfall taxes.

     

    The American democracy has been prone to cycles of extreme political polarization. It is unfortunate when the climax of one of these cycles coincides with a period in which the nation needs sound policy-making over politics by sound bite.

  • Asia's Century

    I write on the long way home from a trip that started in Tokyo and ended less than two weeks later in Dubai.  During these 12 days, I visited customers, partners, government officials and staff in Tokyo, Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Chennai, Bangalore, Abu Dhabi and Dubai.  While Asia and the Gulf are regular destinations for me, I seldom try to cover this much ground in such little time.  Fun for the aging body it is not.  However, it was a great opportunity to compare how half of the famous BRIC countries were recovering from the global recession and getting on with fulfilling their destiny.

     

    In 2001, Jim O’Neil of Goldman, Sachs coined the term “BRICs” to refer to the fast growing economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China.  According to O’Neil and his colleagues, these four countries which then accounted for only 15% of the GDP of the G6 (US, UK, France, Germany, Italy and Japan)  would account for more than 50% by 2050 and would push out all but the US and Japan from the list of the six largest economies in the world.  I remember reading the Goldman report and thinking at the time that it set forth a logically compelling economic argument, but that it did not help me picture how we would get from “here” to “there.”

     

    Less than 10 years on, while Russia seems to have fallen to earth, my two-week speed tour suggests that India and China have shrugged off the financial crisis and have resumed their ascent.  In fact, the deep crisis that has engulfed western markets only seems to have accelerated the growth of India and China.  History normally flows gradually forward in such imperceptible increments that we ignore its progress.  Sometimes, however, we can see it speed along like a flower filmed in time-elapsed photography. Such are the times in which we live.

     

    I can now readily see how at least the BICs will fulfill their forecast destiny.  I have written previously about Brazil’s progress (see infra  Is it Brazil’s Time? (2007)), and the signs there continue to be good.  However,  it does feel to me as if we are living through the transition from America’s century (20th) to Asia’s century (21st). (Europe’s century was obviously the 19th ). Despite all our challenges, I remain optimistic about the United States. Sure we need to begin living within our means and not treating the roofs over heads as a revolving credit facility, but the productive and innovative capacity of the country is still great and Asia’s rise need not be a zero sum game. Nonetheless, America’s reign as the world’s only superpower will have been short-lived.  

     

    A final note on two weeks of trains, planes and automobiles:  Don’t count out the Gulf.  While Dubai’s current problems are well known, it would be wrong to conclude that Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Bahrain are all one large palm-shaped sand bar stretching into the sea.  Anyone for the 22nd being Africa’s century with the Gulf its major trading hub?

     

     

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