Welcome to Tom Glocer's Blog Sign in | Join | Help
in Search

Tom Glocer's Blog

Vive La France

I have written frequently in this blog about many countries I admire, most recently Brazil. However, there is only one country to which I am very attached and in which I have lived, worked and owned property, but which has not featured prominently in these pages. That country is France.

What prompts me to write today about this always elegant, usually rational and sometimes maddening nation is the current race for President of the Fifth Republic. Even by French standards this years's campaign is shaping up to be a campaign of economic suicide. The first round of the election will be held on April 22 and if, as is likely, no candidate achieves an outright majority, a run-off between the top two candidates will be held on May 6. The two current front runners are the incumbent President, Nicholas Sarkozy, of the center-right UMP party, and the current leader, Francois Hollande, of the Socialist party.

What I find remarkable about this election is the economic policy upon which Hollande is campaigning. He has promised to reduce the retirement age from 62 to 60; raise the tax rate on high-earners to 75%; renegotiate the recently-agreed European fiscal treaty; and wage war against "le monde de la finance." Now, if Europe, including most pointedly, France, were not facing a near-existential financial crisis, these sort of campaign promises could be dismissed as harmless populism, but the stakes are much higher this election. First, Europe is by no means out of the woods despite the breathing spell afforded by Mario Draghi's decisive action at the ECB. Second, Hollande is not just a fringe candidate seeking to motivate his faithful; the polls have him well in front with less than two months to go before the expected run-off election. Third, these are not ordinary times – global markets remain on edge – and these are not merely symbolic measures like Lionel Jospin's mandated 35-hour work week in 2000. Finally, responsible governments in Europe are going in the other direction, seeking to raise retirement ages not reduce them.

In fairness, President Sarkozy has also staked out some economically indefensible positions. Playing to the extreme right, Sarkozy has vowed to slash immigration in half which is not only questionable on humanitarian grounds, it is bad economics (at least in the longer run) for a country with an aging population and a low birth rate. Otherwise, as far as I can tell, President Sarkozy has done a decent job in office, but when I expressed this opinion recently to a French friend, he replied "we just can't stand to watch his face on TV any longer."

So as things stand now, France is likely to elect a new president within the next two months. Perhaps, as Hugo Dixon has argued recently in Reuters Breaking Views, this is not as dire economically as I make it out above because Hollande's "reforms" are likely to be heavily caveated and watered-down. However, as someone who believes that too many continental governments have been pandering to their citizens and delaying their day of reckoning for much of the post-war period, this latest election contest strikes me as one more good crisis wasted. My only worry is that the next one will be worse and the ECB printing press will have run out of paper to print.
Published Monday, March 12, 2012 11:16 PM by Tom Glocer

Comments

 

georges ugeux said:

My confidence in the next President does not come from a deep trust in political wisdom, on which I became increasingly skeptical, and sometimes cynical. Nicolas Sarkozy increased France's public debt by 600 billion Euros (up 55%) while claiming publicly that the Eurozone countries in difficulty should apply austerity. He has refused it for France.

Whoever is the next President, he or she will inherit a devastated legacy of public finance. The marge de manoeuvre will therefore be narrow. The beginning of wisdom is fear. France should be afraid of the risk to join Italy or Spain. With its 5.4% deficit in 2011 and 90% debt to GDP ratio, the country is very close to a serious crisis.
March 14, 2012 6:24 PM
 

chris said:

Thanks for your concern, as this election might be important, not only for this country, but for the whole European future as well,

Nicolas Sarkozy was mostly appreciated in times of big crisis, people thought that he more or less did what needed to be done, but now they don't remember that,
At the moment, Greece is supposed to be solved, the ECB action made things quieter, even if it might be just buying time, and stocks markets went up, like everything as usual again,
And his opponent feels free to make unrealistic promises, as if no big debt was waiting for us around the corner,

What people do remember, it's Sarkozy celebrating his election victory at Fouquet's, then going on a vacation on a billionaire friend's yacht, things that were inappropriate, in a country where a big portion of the population has socialist inclinations. Plus his narcissistic tendency, and his habit of occupying TV much more than necessary,

He apologized recently about his behavior, and his polls ratings improved a little, maybe he needs to apologize even more!

Anyway, he was so much criticized and rejected lately, that hopefully at some point, people might change their minds, start to appreciate his resistance and persistance, and support him again,
Even if today it's not politically correct to say it, at the last minute, he could be considered as the safe haven. More than one month to go, many things can happen.
March 18, 2012 3:22 PM
 

stephend said:

Interesting! With the week's events!
March 23, 2012 10:34 AM
 

sharikashokh12 said:

nice post
March 25, 2012 1:46 PM
 

AlHal said:

Too many continental governments have been pandering to their citizens and delaying their day of reckoning for much of the post-war period.
Which country has stopped delaying the day of reckoning, grappled with its problems and set themselves on the path to sustainable growth?
March 27, 2012 5:44 AM
 

notSartre said:

You are right: France is not alone in facing a "near-existential" financial crisis... and not only financial, but a humanitarian one as well.  In light of the recent terrorist attacks (on French military personel and Jewish families), France's weak leadership is quickly steering it toward instablility.  I doubt anything will change with the upcoming elections.
April 10, 2012 6:30 PM
 

Frédéric said:

Despite a surprising error on the birth rate of France which is one of the highest in Europe, which makes France not as comparable as Germany, I tend to agree with your views. Not sure yet that France will have a new president though.
However, it is amazing to see how the media and the polls can exacerbate some of the most weird politicians sayings, thinkings or promises, and as a consequence influence our own opinions. I read recently that 50% of the persons who have been polled 2 months ago have since changed their mind. It is undeniable that the polls have an influence on us, for the less lucid ones at least. Can we imagine similar situation 2 months after May 6?
I can believe the current situation in France is laughable to some extent for some foreigners - it is a mark of our elegance!. As a french citizen, I am certainly fed up by the bias put by the media, not questioning politicians programs objectively, tending to wash up our brains and in the end dictating what to do underhand. In a week time, we'll see if we have a smashing first round result as in 2002. I will be interested in the abstention (to some extent) and the blank vote rate, which democratically would mean that the political offer is not the right one.
As for the "good crisis wasted", I would like to see the media explaining to the mass that it is like a loaded dice game. As ever since 40 years, a so-called recurrent crisis is profitable to a lot. But like for any gossip, some media keeps indecently relaying the bad side of things. In a market economy, some loses, some wins. Nothing new. If this model is no longer virtuous, let's change it. History would remind us the consequences beforehand.
A bientôt !
April 15, 2012 7:30 AM
 

jckkaliss12 said:

nice post
April 15, 2012 12:02 PM
 

paulbr said:

good :)
April 16, 2012 9:07 AM
Anonymous comments are disabled

This Blog

Post Calendar

<March 2012>
SuMoTuWeThFrSa
26272829123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728293031
1234567

Post Categories

Syndication