Welcome to Tom Glocer's Blog Sign in | Join | Help
in Search

Tom Glocer's Blog

Davos 2009 - History Resumes

In his now famous 1989 essay, The End of History, Francis Fukuyama argued that the spread of  Western liberal democracy represented an end of history in the Hegelian sense that the progression of history towards an ultimate goal had, in fact, been reached with the fall of communism.
 
My impressions from several sessions with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Russian Federation Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at Davos are that if Fukuyama was ever correct, history has resumed.  While Western leaders argued over who was to blame for the financial crisis devouring world markets, these former communist leaders harbored no doubt - it was US style capitalism and a naively unregulated financial system.
 
Premier Wen gave measured and impressive performances, calmly answering even sensitive questions such as Sino-US rifts over exchange rate policy, and generally avoiding  "we told you so" gloating.  Prime Minister Putin on the other hand was less restrained, to the point where it seemed quite evident that this was personal payback time for the perceived humbling of the great Russian state after the fall of communism.
 
While Mr. Putin's public rebuke of the well-intentioned Mike Dell has received a huge amount of media attention, I thought the more remarkable performance was when Mr. Putin responded to a question about the incident the following day.  Towards the end of a long description of Russia's recognized scientific prowess, he got on to the subject of technology export controls imposed by certain western governments.  Mr. Putin said that these were outdated and ineffective because (i) it is in the nature of the scientific process to publish and share findings at international conferences and (ii) in any case, even during the Cold War, the Russian intelligence services were able to obtain all the technology they wanted. It is perhaps not surprising that this former siloviki holds his intelligence services in high regard, but it struck me as unusually forthright.
 
What is clear from both Premier Wen and Prime Minister Putin's few days in the Graubunden Mountains, is that history is anything but dead and we are in for a more multilateral world over the coming years.
Published Friday, February 06, 2009 10:27 AM by Tom Glocer

Comments

 

Ikaraev said:

Tom I often listen to Putin’s philippics in Russian on the Russian TV news. He’s clearly a KGB thug of the good old times. I was optimistic about him when he just came to power, but as his grasp of power solidified he reverted to the images and rhetoric of the KGB at its best. In spite of the dire predicament Russia is in right now he tries to adopt and follow the policies or the fSU. A lot really depends on how the West will respond to his (new Russia) ambitions. If it will give him credence and accept him as an equal partner, as the new administration seems to do, he’ll feel even more full of himself and will demand more and more influence and control. If on the other hand the West will just ignore him and let the natural course of events take hold it will pretty soon become obvious that the new Russia is not much different from the old USSR, as it’s still predominantly a huge natural resource basin and is still a third world country in spite of all of its pride. It needs Western technology now more than ever and irrespective of what FSU can still from the West it will continue to be a third world country unless it smartens up and installs a Peter the Great instead of a Putin the Little.  
February 8, 2009 10:41 PM
 

NicksNicks said:

We've already moved beyond the free market since states have intervened to make a notion of a 'perfect market' redundant.  I'm glad however you remain optimistic about a multilateral world.  For me there remains a concern that if the wrong decisions are made by governments in the next few weeks, over protectionsim, the opposite will happen, States will make unilateral decisions in response to local calls for action by their democracies, and therby continue to undermine perfect market theory and be more unilaterall.
February 13, 2009 7:11 AM
Anonymous comments are disabled

This Blog

Post Calendar

<February 2009>
SuMoTuWeThFrSa
25262728293031
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
1234567

Post Categories

Syndication