Much has been written about how the music business is in terminal decline and how there is no longer any money to be made in identifying, nurturing, and recording talented musicians, and then distributing and otherwise commercializing their music.
Things have certainly been tough in the business for the past several years, but I am optimistic that the tide is about to turn. The re-invention of the music industry is a bit like the middle -east peace process: everyone knows pretty much what the ultimate solution will look like, but no one has the courage to get there.
I am optimistic for several reasons: First, good music continues to be created - it is a natural human impulse. Second, digital technology has cut to near zero the costs of duplication and distribution (although also the cost of piracy). Third, great portable devices like i-pods and mobile phones have increased the consumption of music on the go. Fourth, social networking and video sites have increased the demand and the ability to share music. Fifth and finally, advertising is gaining acceptance as the payment to consume "free" content.
So what will the ultimate solution look like? Undoubtedly, some form of advertising supported model where the music itself ceases to be the expensive jewel that needs to be locked up in a hard copy format like an LP, cassette or CD . Instead, music will become the vehicle that carries advertising and that builds a brand for the artist that can be exploited via merchandising, live concerts and endorsements. For this, the music companies need to hold firm and sign artists to so-called "360 contracts", but this can be done.
The only question in my mind is when will the industry move to this model. To date, the old model has retained its attractions to a generation of music executives who don't see why they need to be the ones who move to a new, more economic model. I recently picked up a copy of Billboard, the industry bible, and it was as if nothing had changed, other than the ads for conferences which promised to explain the secrets of digital music. However, with the sales of recorded music falling every year by double-digits, I think we are close to the point where a courageous company will realize that it has little to lose by flipping the model.
In the meantime, I will continue to enjoy listening to music (legally) on my 16-gig Apple i-touch.