If I needed any reminder of the stakes in this upcoming presidential election, this weekend’s 40th anniversary reunion of my law school class provided the wake up call.  It also provided a not so gentle reminder that I am getting older.

Predictably, the 2024 election was a topic of significant discussion.  It will come as no surprise to readers of this blog or my Twitter feed that I have not suddenly been converted to the view that Donald Trump is a wise and thoughtful leader who can make our already great nation, even greater. Nonetheless, my reasons for voting against Trump again have evolved and perhaps become more nuanced.

Being economically conservative and socially liberal means there is much I find objectionable with both parties’ platforms.  My conservative leaning friends (yes there are many – at least when the label used to mean something) are quick to point out that the Donald’s bark is worse than his bite and that once in office, he will likely be constrained by sensible Cabinet appointees and our overall system of checks and balances.

The problem is that I’ve seen this movie before and the self-obsessed lead actor has learned some lessons on how he can let “Trump be Trump”.  Our constitutional democracy is 235 years old and and it has survived some severe threats, most prominently the US Civil War.  I do not suffer from Trump derangement syndrome to the point where I believe his election will lead to the immediate downfall of our democracy or that he will be able to completely abolish the rule of law.  However, why take the risk?

Even if  you think that Kamala Harris is an awful person (I do not) or wrong on every policy issue (I don’t support them all), nonetheless why risk this noble 200+ year-old experiment?  Even if there’s only a 10% chance that Trump would push the US to resemble Victor Orban‘s Hungary or worse, why not kick the can down the road another four years and allow a less dangerous conservative leader to emerge from the ashes of the Republican party?

Is the situation in the United States really so dire when you compare us to other nations that it’s worth taking such a chance?  Perhaps you believe that there is a non-zero risk that Harris will turn the US towards communism, but do you really believe that she would follow Trump’s lead and become only the second president to refuse a peaceful transition?

I am an unapologetic institutionalist; I believe in the rule of law, not men.  I am also a risk manager and I think it’s foolhardy to gamble with our imperfect yet peacefully perfectible system.   In law school I read John Rawls’ A Theory of Justice and was taken by his adoption of the  “maximin” principle from decision theory.  In short, it provides that under conditions of limited information on outcomes, prudence requires eliminating the worst possible outcome.

So let’s not throw the “Hail Mary Pass” (for my UK friends, the “Hospital Pass”).  Go out and vote under the banner: “Four more years for America.”